The Wheel of Extravagance Project (Part 2)
730 Days of Throwing Away Neopoints
or, How I lost 19 million Neopoints over the last two years.
A little over a year ago, I published an article in the Neopian Times detailing my results with spinning the Wheel of Extravagance for 365 days. In that article, I wrote in the very first paragraph that I was going to spin until I either landed on the coveted Scorchstone wedge, which would award you one rarity-100 item, or lost 20 million Neopoints. Well, two years in, and I'm close to that 20 million upper limit (and still haven't landed on that elusive Scorchstone wedge). With statistics data like this, more data points usually presents a clearer and more accurate picture, so I figured this was as appropriate a time as any to update you, my avid audience.
If you're unaware, the Wheel of Extravagance is located in Qasala and costs 100,000 Neopoints per spin. In addition to rare items, you also have a chance of winning an avatar, exclusive prizes, Neopoints, or stats for your active pet. You also have a very high chance of landing on the dreaded Big X wedge, which leaves you completely empty-handed as you walk away with your head hung down in despair. For a more in-depth description of each of the twelve wedges on the Wheel of Extravagance, please refer to the previous installment of this article in the Neopian Times, Issue 776.
Spinning the wheel 730 times, selling all my item prizes at Shop Wizard (or Trading Post) prices, and considering all Battledome-stat increases as the equivalent of what it would have cost in Codestones to train those points (Intelligence increases were counted as being worth no Neopoints, but Agility increases were counted as equal to other types of Battledome stats), I lost 18,955,341 Neopoints over the past two years. Considering it has cost 73,000,000 Neopoints to spin the wheel over the past two years, that means I was awarded over 54 million Neopoints worth of NP, item prizes, and equivalent training points. In part 1 of this article, I had reported winning roughly the equivalent of 25 million Neopoints, so the second year's results are similar to the first year's.
In the last 365 spins, I have landed on the avatar wedge 3 times; on days 418, 420, and 566 (out of 730). This brings the average number of days it would take to land on the avatar wedge up from 74 days to 91 days. Obviously, landing on it two times in three days was a mockery. The longest stretch between avatar wedge sightings was over 5.5 months; not particularly heartening results for those still after the avatar, I'm sorry to say.
I landed on the X wedge 67 times in the last 365 spins. This may seem like a lot, but it brings the percentage of X landings down from the 22% reported in the previous article to 20%. Although I did want to mention that I landed on the X for five days in a row between days 478 and 482, which is still quite depressing.
The Neopoint bag spots were still at the top of the list for which wedges I landed on most. In the two-year total, I landed on the 50,000 NP wedge 148 times, the 25,000 NP wedge 142 times, and the 100,001 NP wedge 101 times.
Although the percentage of landing on the 50,000 NP wedge went down in the second 365 spins, it actually comes out to be equal to landing on the X wedge now, with both wedges earning 20% of my spins. The 25,000 NP wedge stayed at just around 19%, and the 100,001 NP wedge went up almost 1% to roughly 14%.
The Nerkmid wedge still holds its place as the fifth most common result. I landed on this spot 53 times in the last 365 spins (a bit more often than the first 365 spins). Of the 53 times, I received Nerkmids 21 times, Job Coupons 13 times (up from 7 times in the first 365 spins), and Lab Maps 19 times.
None of the Nerkmids were worth more than the cost of the spin, although as stated before, this is not surprising with the addition of Nerkmids as Battledome prizes from the Cosmic Dome (open to Premium members).
Of the Job Coupons, 11 of the 13 were worth more than 100,000 NP, with the notable exceptions being a Blue Job Coupon (worth ~7,000 NP) and a dip in the market price of the Gold Job Coupon causing that day's win to be worth just slightly below 100,000 NP. The most common Job Coupon won was Purple (4 in the last 365 spins, 5 in the last 730 spins). The most valuable was a Gold Brightvale Job Coupon, worth roughly 600,000 NP.
Of the Secret Laboratory Maps, only 7 of the 19 pieces were worth more than 100,000 NP (compared to 15 of the 18 pieces won in the first 365 spins). Combined with the data from the first 365 spins, 22 map pieces were worth more then 100,000 NP (roughly 59% of the map pieces). Just as in the previous article, 5 of the 9 unique Secret Laboratory Map pieces (or 55.5%) are worth more than 100,000 NP.
So although we are still beating statistics a little, you can clearly see that probability is evening out with the larger data set.
I landed on the One Flexed Arm (+5 stats) wedge 27 times, and the Two Flexed Arms (+10 stats) wedge 13 times in the last 365 spins. As stated before, the “worth” of these spots will vary depending on your active 'pet's current Battledome stats. Yes, the Wheel of Extravagance will award the stats to your active pet, and there is no chance of illness or stats-loss when spinning this wheel, so definitely make sure you select your preferred training pet before spinning.
For the first five months or so of the second half of my data set, I was spinning with a pretty high-leveled pet, and +5 stats were worth around 120,000 NP to me (+10 stats would be worth double that). This wasn't as valuable as “training” my maxed out pet (750 Strength and 750 Defense), which would have been worth twice the amount as my chosen pet, but I wasn't actively training my maxed out pet anymore, so the “worth” was irrelevant to me, personally, in this case. Again, which pet you choose to take with you to spin the Wheel of Extravagance is completely up to you and your goals for your pets (assuming you have training goals). Case in point, after trading the pet I was training, I started spinning the wheel with a different pet whose stats were much lower. Therefore for the last seven months, +5 stats were worth somewhere between 40,000 and 70,000 NP (The Wraith Resurgence took place during this time, and the price of Codestones fluctuated quite a bit), causing the One Arm wedges (and even some of the earlier Two Arm wedges) to be an NP loss for me.
In the last 365 spins, I received Intelligence points five times, on par with the four times from the first 365 spins. Again, each time I receive Intelligence in place of a traditional Battledome statistic, I counted it as being worth 0 Neopoints. In addition, I was awarded + 10 Agility points two times, and +5 Agility points four times, which I did calculate as if they were trained, although many will disagree with the worth of training Agility.
After 730 spins, we can see the percentage of the times each statistic was given out. Notably, Intelligence was awarded far fewer times in the One Arm wedge (10%) than HP, Strength, Defense, and Agility, which came in at 20%, 27%, 21.5%, and 21.5%, respectively. In the Two Arm wedge, all five statistics were more even, with Intelligence, HP, Strength, Defense, and Agility being awarded 4, 3, 6, 4, and 5 times, respectively, over the past two years. When the One Arm wedge and Two Arm wedge data are taken together, Intelligence, HP, Strength, Defense, and Agility were awarded 12%, 18%, 27%, 21%, and 22% of the time, respectively. As you can see, Strength is given out just slightly more often than the other statistics in both the One Arm wedge and the Two Arm wedge.
Wheel Exclusive Items
I won the Wheel of Extravagance Background and the Wheel of Extravagance Stamp once each in the last 365 spins, bringing the total up to three each for these two wedges when taking all 730 spins together. This brings the probability of landing on each of these wedges down from 0.5% to 0.4%, hardly a change to muddle your head about.
And in a reverse of the Wheel Exclusive Item wedges, I landed on the Paint Brush wedge twice in the last 365 spins, bringing the total for that wedge up to three as well, and bringing the probability of landing on this wedge up from 0.3% to 0.4%. Again, not much of a change when you're talking about one or two times during a complete year of spinning the wheel, but still a happy occurrence.
For posterity, on day 435 I won a Maraquan Paint Brush (worth ~4.2 million NP at the time), and on day 438 I won a Woodland Paint Brush (worth ~1.4 million NP at the time). If you'll recall from the previous article, on day 120 I won a Plushie Paint Brush (worth ~3 million NP at the time). So that makes the Maraquan Paint Brush my new most profitable spin to date.
After collecting two years of data, I am ready to throw in the hat. Since I am no longer actively training a pet, the additional Battledome statistics no longer benefit me, and those were probably the most consistently profitable rewards given out by the Wheel of Extravagance. Factoring in only HP, Strength, and Defense, if I had spun the wheel with the same training buddy every day for the past two years, I would've gained 80 HP, 130 Strength, 95 Defense. This may not seem like a whole lot, but if your 'pet is already an Expert, Master or Grand Master enrolled at the Secret Ninja Training School (the levels at which a +5 stat increase in today's average red Codestone prices would be worth more than the cost of the spin), it would be worth somewhere between 25 million and 38 million Neopoints, and save 3050-3660 hours of courses (127-152 days, assuming you trained continuously). Additionally, the Wheel of Extravagance does not award Levels, so you can still tightly control when you jump up to the next course type. True, two years' worth of spins would cost almost twice the highest possible value of training, but with the other possible rewards from the wheel, combined with the time savings for training, it might be a consideration.
To close, my daily spins turned out to cost only ~26,000 NP per day after the value of the prizes were factored in. Perhaps that will help you feel a little less extorted the next time you go to spin the Wheel of Extravagance. Good luck to all who are still hunting this avatar!
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